Here’s What My Crystal Ball Says about the Market

I’ve received a lot of comments on my first quarter market update.  As you might recall, I forecasted the bond market was a bear market waiting to happen and the stock market would likely retain its bipolar personality with large swings in the value of the indexes.  Both have proven true with bond yields increasing since the first of the year (driving the price of bonds down) and stock market indexes falling significantly and now, over the past couple of days, rallying some.   I’ve had a number of folks ask me if I think we’ve seen the lows in the stock market and in a word, my answer is probably not.

There are two things that make me think that.  Here they are in very basic terms. Read more »

The Poster Girl for Government Pork Does It Again

If you’re not in the mood for a rant, skip this entry.

They say that there are two powerful emotions responsible for most of human behavior – greed and fear – with fear being the more powerful of the two. Read more »

Economic Stimulus and the Bad Bank Plan: Deflationary, Inflationary, or What?

While we still don’t know what the stimulus plan might cost, at this point it seems that the cost of the house package passed last week will go up before it leaves the Senate.  A package that’s already in excess of $800 billion could easily grow by another hundred billion or so. Read more »